No 12 (2024)

Since 1984, the predictive model for determining the winner of the presidential election, "13 Keys to the White House", developed by A. Lichtman and V. Keilis-Borok, has been successfully used in American political science. Based on this model, the author conducts remote election monitoring and offers his own forecast of the expected outcome of the 2024 presidential elections in the United States. American voters are highly likely to vote for Donald Trump, who was predicted to become the 47th president of the United States. The increasing polarization of the American electorate is considered within the framework of the sociological and economic theory of electoral behavior.

The article contributes to the discussion of the United States’ role in the international trade developments, focusing on its position in global merchandise exports under new geopolitical and economic conditions, as well as the export policy of Washington's administration. It highlights the latest trends in international trade, including America’s trade balance. While trade growth after the COVID-19 pandemic has been positive (both merchandise trade and services have exceeded pre-pandemic levels), this trend and its outlook remain unstable due to a number of risks including sanctions, geopolitical tensions. The transformation of the United States’ position in global exports at the beginning of the third decade occurring amid the formation of a new world order. While tensions between United States and China as the world's two largest trade partners remain, the United States is actively diversifying its trade partnerships. The effects of the U.S. export policy at the beginning of the third decade are not only short term but also long term, posing new challenges to international relations.

Nuclear energy industry is currently undergoing a renaissance due to its competitiveness in the global energy market and its indispensability in the context of the energy transition and the "climate" agenda of global elites. The USA and Canada are among the leading players in the global nuclear technologies market. They possess uranium reserves and technologies for uranium extraction, conversion, enrichment, nuclear fuel production, and nuclear power plants construction. They also rely on their own well-developed nuclear power sectors, which together account for about a third of the world's nuclear power generation. However, in recent years, the United States and Canada have gradually lost ground in many segments of the global nuclear energy market. A reconfiguration of the North American nuclear industry is currently underway. To a large extent, the new institutional structure of the American-Canadian alliance in the global nuclear technology market has already crystallized around Cameco – Westinghouse Electric consortium, formed under the auspices of the investment group Brookfield, and the CANDU ecosystem. For the United States, the main priority in the field of nuclear energy today is increasing uranium enrichment capacity and overcoming dependence on Russia in this area. In addition, Washington and Ottawa aim to strengthen their positions abroad, both in the construction of new reactors and in the supply of nuclear fuel and uranium mining. They are also working on expanding their own nuclear generation capacities and developing small modular reactors. On the international stage, the institutionalization of the American-Canadian alliance in the field of nuclear energy makes it inevitable that the United States and Canada will attempt to regain market share in atomic energy technologies, nuclear fuel, and uranium raw materials. They will also work to undermine the Russian Federation’s position in these markets, reduce its export revenues, and slow down the development of its nuclear energy industry.

The article examines changes in U.S. military planning approaches in the context of climate threats, focusing on the impact of climate change on national and international security. The author analyzes the evolution of the perception of climate phenomena as a risk, starting with the policies of the Barack Obama administration and including the current measures of the Joe Biden administration. The paper notes that climate change is seen not only as a direct threat to military installations, but also as a factor that can exacerbate social and political tensions, cause migration crises and regional conflicts. One of the key points is the integration of climate risks into the strategic planning of the U.S. Department of Defense, which is reflected in a number of directives and strategies, such as the Climate Adaptation Plan and the Climate Risk Analysis. Particular attention is given to the development of the DCAT geospatial tool that assesses the vulnerability of military installations to climate change. The article also examines legislative initiatives in the U.S. Congress to support DOD's efforts to mitigate climate change and increase the resilience of military infrastructure. Examples of specific measures aimed at reducing green-house gas emissions, developing clean energy, and improving energy efficiency are provided. Special attention is paid to the U.S. Arctic Strategy, which recognizes climate change as a key driver affecting the strategic environment in the region. Strategic documents repeatedly emphasize the importance of interagency cooperation and strategic planning in a changing climate to minimize risks to U.S. military readiness and national interests.

July 21, 2024, will take its place in the political history of the United States: President J. Biden withdrew from the presidential race for a second term and proposed Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement on the list of candidates. The inevitability of changing the Democratic candidature in the midst of the campaign was driven by J. Biden’s evident fiasco in the "first" confrontation with a Republican rival, as well as his advanced age. The drama of the events reached its peak, and overnight, K. Harris gained a chance to become the leading contender for her party’s nomination. Academician G.A. Arbatov once wrote: "Politics is a resultant force that consists of many applied forces and factors" [12]. It was in this vein that the events of the 2024 presidential elections unfolded, where the intrigue of the winner remained until the very end.