Optimal and critical climatic seed transfer distance of Scots pine in the coniferous-broadleaf forests zone

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Abstract

To maintain forest productivity and conservation, it is necessary to ensure the transfer of seeds for the creation of forest plantations in accordance with the scale and direction of climate change. The aim of this study was to analyse historical data on the growth and survival of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) of various provenances to assess the optimal and critical climatic seed transfer distance to the coniferous-broadleaf forests of the European Russia. The study was based on data on average heights and diameters at 17 years and tree survival at 5 years for 54 pine populations from the East European Plain and south-eastern Europe in plantations of the Kovrovsky district of the Vladimir region. The effect of genotype on phenotypic parameters of populations was estimated using a transfer function that included ecological distances of the number of days with average daily temperatures exceeding 5°C and annual precipitation. Under past and current climate conditions, seeds of local populations can be recommended for planting. By 2041—2070, according to model estimates, there will be a shift in the optimal areas of seed transfer in the south-western direction, thus, as a result of rapid climate change, local populations will show a decrease in productivity relative to those transferred from other areas and having better adaptation to new conditions. Dynamic forest seed zoning has been proposed as one of the tools for implementing the principles of climate-smart forestry in Russia.

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A. V. Lebedev

Russian State Agrarian University — Moscow Timiryazev Agricultural Academy

Author for correspondence.
Email: avl1993@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Timiryazevskaya st., 49, Moscow, 127434

K. I. Dvoychenkov

Russian State Agrarian University — Moscow Timiryazev Agricultural Academy

Email: avl1993@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Timiryazevskaya st., 49, Moscow, 127434

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Supplementary files

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2. Fig. 1. Geographical location of the seed sources (red) and the experimental site (green). Translucent green fill is the natural habitat of the common pine according to EUFORGEN (Caudullo et al., 2024).

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3. Fig. 2. Dependence of the average height at 17 years (H17, m) on the ecological distance of seed movement for 12 geoclimatic variables.

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4. Fig. 3. Dependence of the average diameter at 17 years (D17, cm) on the ecological distance of seed movement for 12 geoclimatic variables.

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5. Fig. 4. The dependence of crop safety in 5 years (S5, %) on the ecological distance of seed movement for 12 geoclimatic variables.

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6. Fig. 5. Surfaces of the two-dimensional transfer function for: a) average height at 17 years, b) average diameter at 17 years, c) tree preservation at 5 years.

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7. Рис. 6. Оптимальные (зеленая заливка) и критические границы зон переброски семян во Владимирскую область (черная точка — экспериментальный участок в Ковровском районе) с потерей производительности молодняками менее 5% (оранжевая заливка) и менее 10% (красная заливка) относительно местных популяций: a) современный климат, b) сценарий SSP1-RCP2.6 на 2041—2070 гг., c) сценарий SSP3-RCP7.0 на 2041—2070 гг., d) сценарий SSP5-RCP8.5 на 2041—2070 гг.

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