Terapevticheskii arkhivTerapevticheskii arkhivТерапевтический архив0040-36602309-5342LLC Obyedinennaya Redaktsiya10475910.26442/00403660.2022.01.201323Original articlesОригинальные статьиResearch ArticleAssessment of factors affecting the probability of hospitalization of COVID-19 patients with concomitant pathology and development of a prognostic model based on themОценка факторов, влияющих на вероятность госпитализации больных COVID-19 с сопутствующей патологией, и разработка на их основе прогностической моделиhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8114-1002LizinfeldIrina A.ЛизинфельдИрина Александровна
Russian Federation

науч. сотр.

pshenichnaya@yandex.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2570-711XPshenichcnayaNatalia Yu.ПшеничнаяНаталья Юрьевна
Russian Federation

д-р мед. наук, проф., зам. дир. по клинико-аналитической работе

pshenichnaya@yandex.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4365-5894ParolinaLiubov E.ПаролинаЛюбовь Евгеньевна
Russian Federation

д-р мед. наук, проф., рук. Центра образования

pshenichnaya@yandex.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2467-7000ZhuravlevGrigorii Yu.ЖуравлевГригорий Юрьевич
Russian Federation

ординатор 2-го года по специальности «Инфекционные болезни»

pshenichnaya@yandex.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5748-178XMaleevViktor V.МалеевВиктор Васильевич
Russian Federation

акад. РАН, д-р мед. наук, проф., советник дир. по научной работе

pshenichnaya@yandex.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4228-9044AkimkinVasiliy G.АкимкинВасилий Геннадьевич
Russian Federation

акад. РАН, д-р мед. наук, проф., дир.

pshenichnaya@yandex.ruNational Medical Research Center of Phthisiopulmonology and Infectious DiseasesФГБУ «Национальный медицинский исследовательский центр фтизиопульмонологии и инфекционных заболеваний» Минздрава РоссииCentral Research Institute of EpidemiologyФБУН «Центральный научно-исследовательский институт эпидемиологии» Федеральной службы по надзору в сфере защиты прав потребителей и благополучия человека1501202294157631203202212032022Copyright ©; 2022, Consilium MedicumCopyright ©; 2022, ООО "Консилиум Медикум"2022Consilium MedicumООО "Консилиум Медикум"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0https://ter-arkhiv.ru/0040-3660/article/view/104759

Introduction. Currently, a significant number of patients with COVID-19 require inpatient treatment. At the same time, predictors of hospitalization are still stable, including in persons with concomitant pathology.

Aim. Assessment of factors affecting the probability of hospitalization of COVID-19 patients with concomitant pathology and the development of a prognostic model based on them.

Materials and methods. An observational retrospective cohort study of 74 314 patients with COVID-19 with various comorbidities was carried out in the period from March to November 2020 in the Russian Federation.

Results. Based on 16 factors, including age, gender, place of diagnosis, fever, rhinitis, loss of taste, shortness of breath, concomitant diseases of the cardiovascular, bronchopulmonary system, oncological, endocrine diseases in patients included in the study, a prognostic model was developed. The need for inpatient treatment of patients with COVID-19 and comorbidities was determined.

Conclusion. The constructed predictive model has demonstrated sufficient efficiency to assess the likelihood of hospitalization of patients with COVID-19 by medical specialists.

Введение. В настоящее время значительное число пациентов с COVID-19 требуют лечения в условиях стационара. При этом предикторы госпитализации все еще четко не определены, в том числе у лиц с сопутствующей патологией.

Цель. Оценка факторов, влияющих на вероятность госпитализации больных COVID-19 с сопутствующей патологией, и разработка на их основе прогностической модели.

Материалы и методы. Проведено обсервационное ретроспективное когортное исследование 74 314 больных COVID-19 с сопутствующей патологией с марта по ноябрь 2020 г.

Результаты. На основании 16 факторов, среди которых возраст, пол, место установления диагноза, повышение температуры тела, ринит, потеря вкуса, одышка, сопутствующие заболевания сердечно-сосудистой, бронхолегочной системы, онкологические, эндокринные заболевания, разработана прогностическая модель вероятности стационарного лечения пациентов с COVID-19 и сопутствующей патологией.

Заключение. Построенная прогностическая модель продемонстрировала достаточную эффективность для оценки вероятности госпитализации пациентов с COVID-19 медицинскими специалистами.

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